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Date
Mar 28, 2026, 12:56 PM
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OK
Duration
1m 59s
Frames
10

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Speech Transcription

兄弟们,上周过年呢,我回了趟洛杉矶,本来跟家人一起开开心心的正过年呢,结果一抬头看见天上有个不明飞行物。当时我看到的时候,这个东西呢正以非常快的速度往天上去冲,然后后面呢留了一条长长的尾巴。我看到这情景,我之前没见过呀,我还以为是个外星生物是个UFO呢。然后呢,我就赶紧掏出手机,还拍下来,发到网上去搜,这到底是什么东西。结果呢,不搜不知道,一艘吓一跳。洛杉矶当时是很多人都看见了这个东西。 这个东西呢,它不是什么新鲜玩意儿,它就是SpaceX发射的Falcon 9 猎鹰9号飞行火箭。那SpaceX这家公司呢,根据彭博社的报道,在最近呢,人家要有一个大好事,那就是本月要申报IPO了。而且IPO估值高达1.75万亿。这不仅是世界上最大的IPO,对于我个人来说也是很激动的呢,因为我前不久呢,刚刚以8000亿的估值投资了SpaceX。没想到这么快呢,就申报IPO了。那咱们今天呢,就来介绍一下这个史上最大的独角兽。视频的最后呢,我还会稍微聊一下,我是怎么投资这家公司的。 接下来,我们一层一层盘,一层盘,它的业务逻辑。首先呢,我们先来说星链Starlink。早在11年前,他宣布要布满这个星链网络计划的时候,到处都是质疑声啊。当时的人们觉得,我用这个光纤什么4G、5G不香吗,哎,又便宜又快,谁会用你又贵又慢的卫星网络上网呢。但是呢,那个时候的马斯克呢,是非常的坚定啊。原因呢,就是因为他看到了两个普通人非常容易忽略了现实。第一个现实就是,其实地球上30%的地区呢,光纤是根本扑不到的,比如说海洋呀,荒漠呀,极地呀,这些地方光纤进不去,人在那儿呢,就连不上网络。那另外一个事实呢,就是大家理解的这种传统的卫星网络呢,它不好用的原因是因为这卫星运行的高度特别高。传统的卫星呢,要运行在距离地面三万公里的高空,所以呢,它的延迟会非常高。 这就是他看到的两个最大痛点。那痛点出来了,怎么解决问题呢。主要的工作呢,人家干了三个。第一个呢,就是卫星呢,不要放太高,咱们就放在距离地面550公里左右的低空,放在这呢,传输距离更短,这延迟呢,就一下子降到了20到30毫秒。然后第二点呢,就是他用自己的火箭来发射这些卫星,所以说,他们的发射成本呢,比别人低了整整一个量级。那第三点呢,就是他们的迭代速度极快,从V2到V3呢,平均四天就发一次火箭,到26年的2月份呢,已经有9500个卫星飘在地球表面了。 那问题来了,这个卫星步是步到这儿了,有人用吗,你用了吗,我用了吗,没人用啊,对吧。那我们来看一下它的用户和收入数据有多夸张。那这个2月份的时候,星链的全球活跃用户呢,已经超过1000万人。而这个数据呢,在2024年的时候呢,只有400万用户。更厉害的是,我们可以看到他发布的数据,25年一年,人家的收入是多少,是123亿美金的收入。 那问题来了,收入这么高,是不是支出也很大,这中间有没有利润,我们再来看一下他的利润数据。25年,人家的毛利润在60亿左右,这毛利率已经达到了50%。而且更夸张的是,他这个业务的边际效应几乎为零。也就是说呢,它的卫星呢,只要飞上天之后,啊,网络只要一形成,再增加一个用户,两个用户,几乎不花任何的成本。所以说,在未来呢,它每新增一个用户,收的那120美金的月费,几乎都是纯利润了。 那在这样的暴利业务下,它之前在硬件上面投入的亏损呢,已经开始逐渐扭转了。要知道,在早期的时候呢,它每卖一个接收器,总是要亏个几百美金的。但是现在不一样,现在随着他们自己的迭代,现在已经第三代第四代,这个方形天线,都已经大规模生产了,现在即便是卖这个硬件,也开始赚钱了。 好,那既然企业这么赚钱,赚的钱干嘛用呢,从财报来看,这些赚的利润呢,大部分都又投入到这兴建的研发里了。好,那接下来呢,我们就来说一下这个兴建,看看这几百亿的利润,喂出来了一个什么样的东西。那老实说啊,这个兴建的业务,现在呢,仍然是一个烧钱的状态。每年的研发支出呢,大约是50亿美金。虽然这个业务呢,还没开始赚钱,但是它已经成熟了整个航天工业的格局了。你要知道啊,在SpaceX干这个事之前,传统的航天公司,比如说波音啊,洛克希勒呀,这些巨头,玩的就是成本加成合同,Cost Plus Contract。简单来说呢,就是这个项目只要做的越久,预算抄的越多,他们就赚的越多,并不是结果越好,收入越高。 但是马斯克认为呢,如果原材料是五万块钱,你敢卖给政府五亿,那你就是在犯罪,诈骗。所以说,SpaceX做新建呢,他不用昂贵的碳纤维,改用最土的不锈钢。他也不搞什么精密的实验室,而是直接在海边,弄个露天工厂,开始汗。他的打法呢,就是要证明,只要我们干的速度够快,成本够低,质量够好,航天行业呢,也可以不只是你们精英阶层的玩物,而是我们民营企业的一个大规模工业制造业务。那马斯克的目标是什么呢,简单来说呢,就是要用1000万美金,造一个建。你要知道,以前的那些航天公司啊,就是发一个火箭,都要十几亿美金的。 好,那除此之外,兴建的业务是有调整的。我们之前其实都听说过马斯克要上火星的事,对吧。那怎么上火星呢,其实就是需要这个星件,去发到火星上。但是马斯克最近呢,把这个业务调整到,不去火星了,咱们去月球。那原因呢,也很简单,火星和地球呢,本质上都是两个球,围绕着太阳转。在这个转的过程中,两者的轨道呢,每26个月才接近一次。这就意味着,如果你此时此刻呢,在火星上施工,你发现一个螺丝钉的射击有问题,那你就要继续等两年多,才能等到下一次这个轨道接近的时候,人家帮你把螺丝钉给你送过来。那月球就不一样了,月球十天就接近一次,也就意味着十天呢,就能发射一班。所以,如果你在月球上发现,哎,我缺个扳手,那下周呢,这个扳手就送到了。 那这个月球城市呢,就是马斯克在26年要全力推进的一个项目,叫Moon Base Alpha。那这个月球城市建在哪呢,老马呢,把这基地选在了月球南极的沙克尔顿陨石坑,我们稍微延展一下,这个地方挺有意思的。这个地方呢,是月球的黄金地段,因为这里呢,它有永恒的阳光。在这个陨石坑的边缘,有几个高点,几乎全年24小时都能晒到太阳。这就意味着,这个地方有无限的太阳能源。而且呢,在这个陨石坑的坑底呢,它有一块永久阴影区,啊,这个区域里,藏着大量的水冰。老马是想要把这些水冰,挖出来,电解成氢气和氧气。 那,再说回来,这个星剑本身,星剑,星剑到底是个什么星剑呢,这个设计也非常有意思,我们也来延展一下。这次的星剑,是马斯克专门为月球设计的特供版,星剑,代号是HLS。它和我们看到的德州的马斯克的大火箭,是有三个巨大的不同的。这每一个不同呢,都为了搞基建而改良的。普通的星剑呢,要在地球的大气层里降落,就必须要带四个巨大的侧翼,来控制平衡。但是月球呢,它又没空气,是吧,所以根本就不要侧翼。所以说,月球版的这个星剑呢,看起来更像是一根巨大的白色冰激凌棒,哈哈,上面呢,是一根翅膀都没有。 除此之外呢,我们来看一下它的着陆架,也改良了。普通星剑的腿呢,是很短的。但是月球表面,全是陨石坑和碎石,地形极其不平整。为了不让这台15层楼高的巨兽,倒下,马斯克居然给他安装了4条巨大的,带液压缓冲的大长腿。这大长腿,能让他,在月球南极,凹凸不平的乱石堆里,站的稳稳的。除此之外,再来说发动机,普通的火箭发动机,在降落最后阶段,喷出来的火蛇,会把月球表面的尘土,吹的漫天飞扬,甚至有可能把这个降落地呢,给砸出来一个大坑,导致火箭侧翻。那马斯克的月球版星舰呢,就在腰的部位,建立了一圈引擎。那当星舰落地,靠近地面的时候,底部的引擎呢,就先关机,然后用腰部的这一圈引擎呢,往下喷气,这样呢,就既能平稳降落,又不会让月球上面的什么灰尘,吹起来,损害了机器的精密零件。 说到这个零件呢,我还想再延展一下。马斯克在自己的自传里面,曾经说过,说最简单的零件,就是没有零件。所以说,在马斯克的设计里,月球上的这个基地,根本不需要盖房子。我降落的每一艘月球版兴建,本身就是一栋15层高的公寓。我这兴建里面,拥有一千立方米的活动空间。这不就是现成的房子吗。所以说,老马计划,就是兴建落地之后,直接横过来,埋在月球的土壤下方,防辐射,买好之后呢,这就是县城的居住所。 好,那既然企业这么赚钱,赚的钱干嘛用呢,从财报来看,这些赚的利润呢,大部分都又投入到这兴建的研发里了。好,那接下来呢,我们就来说一下这个兴建,看看这几百亿的利润,喂出来了一个什么样的东西。那老实说啊,这个兴建的业务,现在呢,仍然是一个烧钱的状态。每年的研发支出呢,大约是50亿美金。虽然这个业务呢,还没开始赚钱,但是它已经成熟了整个航天工业的格局了。你要知道啊,在SpaceX干这个事之前,传统的航天公司,比如说波音啊,洛克希勒呀,这些巨头,玩的就是成本加成合同,Cost Plus Contract。简单来说呢,就是这个项目只要做的越久,预算抄的越多,他们就赚的越多,并不是结果越好,收入越高。 但是马斯克认为呢,如果原材料是五万块钱,你敢卖给政府五亿,那你就是在犯罪,诈骗。所以说,SpaceX做新建呢,他不用昂贵的碳纤维,改用最土的不锈钢。他也不搞什么精密的实验室,而是直接在海边,弄个露天工厂,开始汗。他的打法呢,就是要证明,只要我们干的速度够快,成本够低,质量够好,航天行业呢,也可以不只是你们精英阶层的玩物,而是我们民营企业的一个大规模工业制造业务。那马斯克的目标是什么呢,简单来说呢,就是要用1000万美金,造一个建。你要知道,以前的那些航天公司啊,就是发一个火箭,都要十几亿美金的。 好,那话说回来,在视频的开头呢,我有跟大家提过,我是SpaceX的股东,我投了一点,是吧。那我具体怎么投的呢,这个还挺有意思的。毕竟SpaceX它是一个没上市的公司,你怎么能买到它的股票的呢。简单来说呢,其实就是买老股。今年1月27号,华尔街发生了一件大事,就是大摩摩根斯丹利,豪质7亿美金,收购了一家公司叫EquityZen。这家公司呢,就是专门把独角兽公司的老股,碎片化。摩根斯坦尼的这笔收购呢,就标志着,交易老股的私募股权二级市场,正式被主流金融机构接纳了。消息一出呢,我就赶紧注册了这个平台的账户,去体验一下。体验之后,发现根本不行啊,普通人,他是不友好的。首先呢,他要对我进行验资验证,我是合格投资人。那我验证完了之后,我发现起头门槛呢,是两万美金。 但是这个赛道呢,在硅谷还有另外一家企业叫Jersey,创始人叫秦汉,是清华计算机的学霸,也是Uber的早期成员,从23年就开始实名做这个项目了。Jersey的实现逻辑和AquityZen是一样的,也是通过美国的SPV去持有真实的SpaceX股权。更重要的是,散户非常友好,起投资金就10块钱。那问题来了,怎么知道这些公司,它到底有没有SpaceX的股票,它别是一个卖空气的平台了。关于这个问题呢,接着官方的回复呢,就是他们有一个储备证明。在这里呢,我们可以清晰看到八份股权认购协议,这些呢,都是GLC旗下的基金,向专门的机构认购了SpaceX的股份。合同上的签名呢,就是这个创始人型汉和专业的投资机构签的。那这八份协议的股权数量加起来呢,正好对应他们平台上发行的3103股SpaceX的股票。目前Jersey上面的SpaceX份额呢,还是按照合并XAI之前的8000亿美金估值,在转让。 那说到这儿呢,我还是要强调一下,以上的所有介绍呢,是对这种创新的投资模式进行介绍,并不是任何的投资推介。那如果有感兴趣的小伙伴呢,一定要自己研究啊。我把他们的链接放在视频下方。好,那今天这个视频呢,也到尾声了。SpaceX的故事,你喜欢吗。有时候旁观大佬下棋,看他们一步一步的布局,也是挺有意思的。那另外呢,我们工作是最近在招募志愿者,那具体的招募内容呢,在我的说明栏里。如果你对录视频比较有热情啊,有表现力,而且呢,又是一个不折不扣的数字游民,欢迎跟我们取得联系。那我们下期见了,拜拜,宝贝们。

Frame Analysis (10)

Frame 1

The image depicts a woman seated at a desk, engaged in speaking into a microphone. She has long blonde hair and is attired in a white jacket over a white blouse. Her right hand is raised, with her palm facing inward. In the foreground, a black microphone is prominently displayed on the desk. The desk itself appears to be made of light-colored wood and features various items, including a lamp, a vase with flowers, a phone and a laptop. A monitor or television displaying a blue screen is positioned behind the woman. Superimposed over the bottom center of the image are two lines of text: one in Chinese characters and the other in English, which reads "As early as 11 years ago." The background of the image consists of a plain white wall. The overall atmosphere suggests that the woman is recording a video or podcast.

Frame 2

The image depicts a rocket on a launchpad at night, with Chinese characters and English text superimposed over it. * The rocket: + Is white and silver + Has a black section near the bottom + Features a logo on the side that resembles an "X" with the word "STARLING" underneath + Two yellow fins are visible on either side of the rocket * The launchpad: + Consists of three tall metal towers + The central tower holds the rocket + The two outer towers are slightly shorter than the central one * The background: + Dark blue sky with some clouds + A few lights shining from the bottom of the image * The text: + Chinese characters in white font at the bottom of the image + English translation below the Chinese characters: "He used his own rocket to launch these satellites." In summary, the image shows a rocket on a launchpad at night, with a logo and text overlay. The rocket appears to be preparing for launch, and the text suggests that it was used to launch satellites.

Frame 3

The image depicts a woman sitting at a desk, speaking into a microphone. The woman has long blonde hair and is wearing a white blouse. She appears to be speaking directly to the camera. In front of her, there is a black microphone positioned on the desk. At the bottom of the image, there are two lines of text: one in Chinese characters and the other in English, which reads "Has begun to gradually reverse." Behind the woman, there is a wooden desk with various items on it, including a laptop, a tablet on a stand, and a vase with flowers. The background features a white wall with a light-colored wood floor. The overall atmosphere suggests that the woman is recording a video or podcast in a home office setting.

Frame 4

The video shows an aerial view of a large industrial area with several buildings and various equipment. The industrial area is filled with large metal structures and vehicles. There are several large metal cones scattered around the facility, some of which appear to be partially assembled. In the background, there are several large buildings with corrugated metal roofs. The overall atmosphere suggests a busy and active industrial site, possibly related to aerospace or defense industries. The image has Chinese and English text superimposed on it. The text reads: "Get an open-air factory and start welding." The bottom right corner features a watermark that reads 'RGV AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY'.

Frame 5

The image depicts a still from an animated film or television show, featuring an astronaut in a white spacesuit standing in a space station. The astronaut is positioned on the right side of the image, wearing a white helmet with a clear visor and a white spacesuit adorned with various patches. He appears to be floating or standing on one leg. In front of him, there are two transparent blue screens displaying tools and a wrench. A red warning symbol with the word "MISSING" is visible on the right screen. The astronaut's left hand is raised to his helmet, while his right hand points to the screen. The background of the image shows the interior of a space station, complete with pipes, wires, and machinery. A large circular window on the right side of the image offers a view of the moon's surface, where a robotic vehicle can be seen. At the bottom of the image, white text reads "I'm missing a wrench." Above this text, Chinese characters are displayed. Overall, the image suggests that the astronaut is experiencing difficulties while on a mission to the moon, as indicated by the missing wrench and the warning symbol on the screen.

Frame 6

The image presents a humorous juxtaposition of an ice cream cone standing on the surface of the moon, accompanied by Chinese and English text. The scene features a single ice cream cone with a swirled white ice cream topping, positioned on the right side of the image. The cone appears to be standing on the moon's surface, as indicated by the gray craters visible beneath it. In the background, a small depiction of Earth is visible against the blackness of space. At the bottom of the image, two lines of text are displayed: one in Chinese characters and the other in English, which reads, "Haha, there is not a single wing on it." The overall atmosphere of the image is playful and lighthearted, suggesting that it may be a still from an animated film or a meme.

Frame 7

The image presents a futuristic, multi-level lunar base with a sleek and modern design, showcasing a unique blend of functionality and aesthetic appeal. The base is situated on the surface of the moon, surrounded by a vast, barren landscape. * **Lunar Base** + The base features a large, curved roof that provides protection from the harsh lunar environment. + A transparent section allows for a view of the interior, where astronauts are visible moving around. + The base has multiple levels, with a large, open area on the top level and smaller rooms on the lower levels. + A staircase connects the different levels, providing easy access for the astronauts. * **Astronauts** + Several astronauts are shown moving around the base, some standing on the surface and others inside the base. + They are dressed in white spacesuits, complete with helmets and oxygen tanks. * **Lunar Surface** + The lunar surface is depicted as a barren, rocky expanse with craters and hills in the distance. + A few other structures are visible in the background, including what appears to be a large, dome-shaped habitat. * **Text** + Chinese characters are displayed at the bottom of the image, accompanied by the English translation "It has 1,000 cubic meters of activity space." + The text provides information about the base's interior volume and functionality. In summary, the image showcases a futuristic lunar base with a unique design, featuring a curved roof, multiple levels, and a large interior volume. The base is home to several astronauts who are engaged in various activities, and it is situated on the surface of the moon, surrounded by a barren and rocky landscape.

Frame 8

The image features a screenshot of an article about Elon Musk, accompanied by a photograph of him on the right side. The article is written in Chinese and appears to be discussing SpaceX and xAI's merger. * **Article** * The article is written in Chinese. * It discusses the merger between SpaceX and xAI. * The text highlights two key points: * 马斯克认为,唯一合理的解决方案,就是将这些高资源消耗的算力工作转移至拥有无限能源与空间的领域。 * 通过直接利用近乎持续不断的太阳能,且运行维成本极低,这些卫星将彻底改变我们的算力规模化能力。 * **Photograph of Elon Musk** * The photograph shows Elon Musk wearing a black suit jacket over a white collared shirt. * He has short dark hair and is looking to his left with his hand raised to his mouth. * A caption at the bottom of the image reads "Even some residents near the data center" in English, with Chinese characters above it. * **Background** * The background of the image is black. In summary, the image presents an article about Elon Musk's companies merging, along with a photo of him. The article discusses the potential benefits of this merger, including the ability to utilize solar energy and reduce costs. The photograph shows Musk in a professional setting, with a caption that mentions data centers.

Frame 9

The image presents a comprehensive infographic titled "SPACEX: COMPLETE VERTICAL AI SERVICE ECOSYSTEM INFOGRAPHIC," showcasing SpaceX's cutting-edge technology and innovative approach to artificial intelligence (AI). The infographic is divided into three sections, each highlighting a distinct aspect of SpaceX's AI ecosystem. **Section 1: Starlink - Global Data Network** * **Title:** STARLINK - GLOBAL DATA NETWORK * **Description:** A global network of satellites providing high-speed internet connectivity worldwide. * **Key Features:** + A man sitting on a rock, working on a laptop with a satellite dish nearby. + A family standing near a house with a satellite dish on the roof. + A woman and a man looking at their phones with Grok AI on the screens. + Text: "Stream Grok Anywhere - 随时随地刷Grok" **Section 2: Starship - Heavy Cargo Transport** * **Title:** STARSHIP - HEAVY CARGO TRANSPORT * **Description:** A reusable spacecraft designed for heavy cargo transport and potentially human spaceflight. * **Key Features:** + A Starship spacecraft launching into space. + A cargo ship transporting a large cargo container. + Text: "Moving Computing Power Like Bricks - 像搬砖一样搬算力" **Section 3: xAI - Space Data Center** * **Title:** xAI - SPACE DATA CENTER * **Description:** A space-based data center that processes data at incredible speeds using advanced AI technologies. * **Key Features:** + A futuristic data center in space with solar panels and a satellite. + A man working on a computer with multiple screens displaying data visualizations. + Text: "Processing at the Speed of Light in Orbit - 在轨道上光速处理" **Common Elements:** * The phrase "Train the strongest brain" is displayed in both English and Chinese at the bottom of the image. * A call-to-action to train the strongest brain is emphasized throughout the infographic. In summary, the infographic effectively showcases SpaceX's comprehensive AI ecosystem, highlighting its capabilities in global data networking, heavy cargo transport, and space-based data processing. The use of visually appealing graphics and concise descriptions makes it easy to understand the company's innovative approach to AI and its potential applications.

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The image presents a screenshot of the Jarsy website, featuring a white background with black text and orange accents. The top-left corner displays the company logo, accompanied by the name "Jarsy" in English and Chinese characters. A navigation menu on the left side includes options such as "分析," "表现," "对比," "基本信息," and "团队." The main section of the page provides information about the company, including its name, description, and statistics. * **Company Information** + Name: Jarsy + Description: + Statistics: - 66% - 成立时间: 2024 * **Team Members** + Han Qin - Title: 联合创始人兼首席执行官 + Chunyang Shen - Title: 联合创始人兼首席技术官 + Yiying Hu - Title: 联合创始人兼首席运营官 The bottom of the image features a black bar with white text that reads, "Jarsy的實現邏輯和Equityzen是一樣的" and "The implementation logic of Jarsy is the same as Equityzen." In summary, the image showcases the Jarsy website's homepage, providing an overview of the company, its team members, and their respective roles. The statistics presented suggest that Jarsy has achieved a significant milestone, with a 66% transparency rating and established in 2024. The comparison to Equityzen implies that Jarsy's implementation logic shares similarities with that of Equityzen.