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Date
Mar 28, 2026, 12:44 PM
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OK
Duration
4m 38s
Frames
10

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兄弟们,上周过年呢,我回了趟洛杉矶,本来跟家人一起开开心心的正过年呢,结果一抬头看见天上有个不明飞行物。当时我看到的时候,这个东西呢正以非常快的速度往天上去冲,然后后面呢留了一条长长的尾巴,我看到这情景,我之前没见过呀,我还以为是个外星生物,是个UFO呢。然后呢,我就赶紧掏出手机,还拍下来,发到网上去搜,这到底是什么东西。结果呢,不搜不知道,一艘吓一跳,洛杉矶当时是很多人都看见了这个东西。 这个东西呢,它不是什么新鲜玩意儿,它就是SpaceX发射的Falcon 9 猎鹰9号飞行火箭。那SpaceX这家公司呢,根据彭博社的报道,在最近呢,人家要有一个大好事,那就是本月要申报IPO了,而且IPO估值高达1.75万亿。这不仅是世界上最大的IPO,对于我个人来说也是很激动的呢,因为我前不久呢,刚刚以8000亿的估值投资了SpaceX,没想到这么快呢,就申报IPO了。 那咱们今天呢,就来介绍一下这个史上最大的独角兽,视频的最后呢,我还会稍微聊一下,我是怎么投资这家公司的。接下来,我们一层一层盘一盘,它的业务逻辑。首先呢,我们先来说星链,Starlink。早在11年前,他宣布要布满这个星链网络计划的时候,到处都是质疑声啊。当时的人们觉得,我用这个光纤,什么4G、5G不香吗,哎,又便宜,又快,谁会用你又贵又慢的卫星网络上网呢。但是呢,那个时候的马斯克呢,是非常的坚定啊,原因呢,就是因为他看到了两个普通人非常容易忽略了现实。 第一个现实就是,实际上地球上30%的地区呢,光纤是根本扑不到的,比如说海洋呀,荒漠呀,极地呀这些地方,光纤进不去,人在那儿呢,就连不上网络。那另外一个事实呢,就是大家理解的这种传统的卫星网络呢,它不好用的原因是因为这卫星运行的高度特别高,传统的卫星呢,要运行在距离地面三万公里的高空,所以呢,它的延迟会非常高。这就是他看到的两个最大痛点。那痛点出来了,怎么解决问题呢,主要的工作呢,人家干了三个。 第一个呢,就是卫星呢,不要放太高,咱们就放在距离地面550公里左右的低空,放在这呢,传输距离更短,这延迟呢,就一下子降到了20到30毫秒。然后第二点呢,就是他用自己的火箭来发射这些卫星,所以说,他们的发射成本呢,比别人低了整整一个量级。那第三点呢,就是他们的迭代速度极快,从V2到V3呢,平均四天就发一次火箭,到26年的2月份呢,已经有9500个卫星飘在地球表面了。 那问题来了,你说这个卫星步是步到这儿了,有人用吗,你用了吗,我用了吗,没人用啊,对吧。那我们来看一下它的用户和收入数据有多夸张。那今年2月份的时候,星链的全球活跃用户呢,已经超过1000万人,而这个数据呢,在2024年的时候呢,只有400万用户。更厉害的是,我们可以看到他发布的数据,25年,一年,人家的收入是多少,是123亿美金的收入。 那问题来了,收入这么高,是不是支出也很大,这中间有没有利润,我们再来看一下他的利润数据。25年,人家的毛利润在60亿左右,这毛利率已经达到了50%,而且更夸张的是,他这个业务的边际效应几乎为零,也就是说呢,它的卫星呢,只要飞上天之后啊,网络只要一形成,再增加一个用户,两个用户,几乎不花任何的成本。所以说,在未来呢,它每新增一个用户收的那120美金的月费几乎都是纯利润了。 那在这样的暴利业务下,它之前在硬件上面投入的亏损呢,已经开始逐渐扭转了。要知道,在早期的时候呢,它每卖一个接收器总是要亏个几百美金的,但是现在不一样,现在随着他们自己的迭代,现在已经第三代、第四代,这个方形天线都已经大规模生产了,现在即便是卖这个硬件也开始赚钱了。 好,那既然企业这么赚钱,赚的钱干嘛用呢,从财报来看,这些赚的利润呢,大部分都又投入到这兴建的研发里了。好,那接下来呢,我们就来说一下这个兴建,看看这几百亿的利润喂出来了一个什么样的东西。那老实说啊,这个兴建的业务,现在呢仍然是一个烧钱的状态,每年的研发支出呢,大约是50亿美金。虽然这个业务呢,还没开始赚钱,但是它已经成熟了整个航天工业的格局了。 你要知道啊,在SpaceX干这个事之前,传统的航天公司,比如说波音啊,洛克希勒呀这些巨头玩的就是成本加成合同,Cost Plus Contract,简单来说呢,就是这个项目只要做的越久,预算抄的越多,他们就赚的越多,并不是结果越好,收入越高。但是马斯克认为呢,如果原材料是五万块钱,你敢卖给政府五亿,那你就是在犯罪,诈骗。所以说,SpaceX做新建呢,他不用昂贵的碳纤维,改用最土的不锈钢,他也不搞什么精密的实验室,而是直接在海边弄个露天工厂开始汗他的打法呢,就是要证明,只要我们干的速度够快,成本够低,质量够好,航天行业呢,也可以不只是你们精英阶层的玩物,而是我们民营企业的一个大规模工业制造业务。 那马斯克的目标是什么呢,简单来说呢,就是要用1000万美金造一个建,你要知道,以前的那些航天公司啊,就是发一个火箭都要十几亿美金的好。那除此之外,兴建的业务是有调整的,我们之前其实都听说过马斯克要上火星的事,对吧。那怎么上火星呢,实际上就是需要这个星件去发到火星上,但是马斯克最近呢,把这个业务调整到不去火星了,咱们去月球。那原因呢也很简单,火星和地球呢,本质上都是两个球,围绕着太阳转,那在这个转的过程中,两者的轨道呢,每26个月才接近一次。这就意味着,如果你此时此刻呢,在火星上施工,你发现一个螺丝钉的射击有问题,那你就要继续等两年多,才能等到下一次这个轨道接近的时候,人家帮你把螺丝钉给你送过来。 那月球就不一样了,月球十天就接近一次,也就意味着十天呢,就能发射一班,所以如果你在月球上发现,哎,我缺个班手,那下周呢,这个班手就送到了。那这个月球城市呢,就是马斯克在26年要全力推进的一个项目,叫Moon Base Alpha。那这个月球城市建在哪呢,老马呢,把这基地选在了月球南极的沙克尔顿陨石坑,我们稍微延展一下这个地方挺有意思的,这个地方呢,是月球的黄金地段,因为这里呢,它有永恒的阳光,在这个陨石坑的边缘有几个高点,几乎全年24小时都能晒到太阳。这就意味着,这个地方有无限的太阳能源,而呢,在这个陨石坑的坑底呢,它有一块永久阴影区啊,这个区域里藏着大量的水冰,老马是想要把这些水冰挖出来,电解成氢气和氧气。 那再说回来,这个星剑本身,星剑星剑到底是个什么星剑呢,这个设计也非常有意思,我们也来延展一下。这次的星剑是马斯克专门为月球设计的特供版,星剑代号是HLS,它和我们看到的德州的马斯克的大火箭是有三个巨大的不同的,每一个不同呢,就是为了搞基建而改良的。普通的星剑呢,为了能在地球的大气层里降落就必须要带四个巨大的侧翼来控制平衡,但是月球呢,它又没空气,是吧,所以根本就不要侧翼,所以说月球版的这个星剑呢,看起来更像是一根巨大的白色冰激凌棒,哈哈,上面呢,是一根翅膀都没有。 除此之外呢,我们来看一下它的着陆架也改良了,那普通星剑的腿呢,是很短的,但是月球表面全是陨石坑和碎石地形极其不平整,为了不让这台15层楼高的巨兽倒下,马斯克居然给他安装了4条巨大的带液压缓冲的大长腿,这大长腿能让他在月球南极凹凸不平的乱石堆里站的稳稳的。除此之外,再来说发动机,这普通的火箭发动机在降落最后阶段,喷出来的火蛇会把月球表面的尘土吹的漫天飞扬,甚至有可能把这个降落地儿呢给砸出来一个大坑,导致火箭侧翻。那马斯克的月球版星舰呢,就在腰的部位建立了一圈引擎,那当星舰落地靠近地面的时候,底部的引擎呢就先关机,然后用腰部的这一圈引擎呢往下喷气,这样呢就既能平稳降落,又不会让月球上面的什么灰尘吹起来,损害了机器的精密零件。 说到这个零件呢,我还想再延展一下,马斯克在自己的自传里面曾经说过,说最简单的零件就是没有零件,所以说在马斯克的设计里,月球上的这个基地根本不需要盖房子,我降落的每一艘月球版兴建本身就是一栋15层高的公寓,我这兴建里面拥有一千立方米的活动空间,这不就是现成的房子吗,所以说老马计划就是兴建落地之后直接横过来埋在月球的土壤下方,防辐射,买好之后呢,这就是县城的居住所。 好,那以上聊完了星链和星键,这就盘完了SpaceX的基础业务了,但是咱都知道,业务基础这收购呢,就不能基础,马斯克今年下了一步,天才旗,就是把XAI直接并入了SpaceX。那问题来了,SpaceX是一个造火箭的公司,它合并这XAI干嘛呢,是不是又是马斯克吹牛逼,讲故事为了支撑它的股价呢。如果你这么想,我觉得还是有道理的,但是呢,咱也不能忽视人家马斯克的野心,因为马斯克发现呢,你说现在的这些AI大厂卷来卷去,最大的难题呢,他们都解决不了,AI现在最大的问题呢,就是个个都是吞电兽,XAI自己训练的Groker3呢,实际上我觉得用着还是不错的,但是马斯克说呢,训练一个Groker3,它的耗电量呢,是几万户家庭用一年的量。 而且呢,在训练的过程中要使用一些芯片,这些芯片只要一运作就发热严重了,就需要用无数的大量的水去冷却。那老马在2月份的声明里面其实说了已经很直白了,他说地面上的这些数据中心已经快把地球的电网炸干了,甚至有些数据中心附近的居民这些邻居都开始抗议了。于是老马就提出了一个天才的设想,就是这地球上搞不了,咱们去天上搞数据中心,那听到这儿你应该都能理解,这就是为什么SpaceX非要收购一个XAI的核心原因了。 我要给你们AI企业做轨道数据中心翻译成大白话来说,就是老马要把成千上万台服务器直接送上太空,在太空里没有云彩,没有黑夜,卫星24小时满负荷接收太阳能,你说这不就能源电能来了吗。除此之外呢,我们也都知道太空里呢,它的温度是非常低的,接近于绝对零度,你在地球上的数据中心,你还要费尽去想散热的问题,40%的损耗都用在散热上了,但是在太空,散热是免费的,辐射冷却,你地球上的任何算力中心都干不过我宇宙版的算力中心。 于是在这种思想的指导下,两者就合并了,合并之后,SpaceX就成了全球唯一的全战AI服务商,你想Sarlink搞网络的,有网络就负责能把数据直接传到地球,让你随时随地能刷它的AI,GROKE,星剑就负责把几十吨重的算力中心这些材料一点点搬到太空中去,XAI就负责在这些太空机房里训练出最强大脑,这样一层一层剥下来,大家心里是不是对这个马总多少又生起点敬畏之心呢,咱不管他最后实现的怎么样,但是就这野心,这设计,这思路是吧,咱们还要跟他点个打大的赞呢。 好,那话说回来,在视频的开头呢,我有跟大家提过,我是SpaceX的股东,我投了一点,是吧。那我具体怎么投的呢,这个还挺有意思的,毕竟SpaceX它是一个没上市的公司,你怎么能买到它的股票的呢。简单来说呢,实际上就是买老股,今年1月27号,华尔街发生了一件大事,就是大摩摩根斯丹利豪质7亿美金收购了一家公司叫EquityZen,这家公司呢,就是专门把独角兽公司的老股碎片化,摩根斯坦尼的这笔收购呢,就标志着交易老股的私募股权二级市场正式被主流金融机构接纳了。 消息一出呢,我就赶紧注册了这个平台的账户去体验一下,体验之后发现根本不行啊,普通人他是不友好的,首先呢,他要对我进行验资验证,我是合格投资人,那我验证完了之后,我发现起头门槛呢,是两万美金。但是这个赛道呢,在硅谷还有另外一家企业叫Jersey,创始人叫秦汉,是清华计算机的学霸,也是Uber的早期成员,从23年就开始实名做这个项目了,Jersey的实现逻辑和AquityZen是一样的,也是通过美国的SPV去持有真实的SpaceX股权,更重要的是,散户非常友好,起投资金就10块钱。 那问题来了,怎么知道这些公司它到底有没有SpaceX的股票,它别是一个卖空气的平台了。关于这个问题呢,接着官方的回复呢,就是他们有一个储备证明,在这里呢,我们可以清晰看到八份股权认购协议,这些呢,都是GLC旗下的基金向专门的机构认购了SpaceX的股份,合同上的签名呢,就是这个创始人型汉和专业的投资机构签的,那这八份协议的股权数量加起来呢,正好对应他们平台上发行的3103股SpaceX的股票。目前Jersey上面的SpaceX份额呢,还是按照合并XAI之前的8000亿美金估值在转让。 那说到这儿呢,我还是要强调一下,以上的所有介绍呢,都是对这种创新的投资模式进行介绍,并不是任何的投资推介。那如果有感兴趣的小伙伴呢,一定要自己研究啊,我把他们的链接放在视频下方。好,那今天这个视频呢,也到尾声了,SpaceX的故事,你喜欢吗,有时候旁观大佬下棋,看他们一步一步的布局也是挺有意思的。那另外呢,我们工作是最近在招募志愿者,那具体的招募内容呢,在我的说明栏里,如果你对录视频比较有热情啊,有表现力,而且呢,又是一个不折不扣的数字游民,欢迎跟我们取得联系。那我们下期见了,拜拜,宝贝们。

Frame Analysis (10)

Frame 1

The video shows a young woman with long blonde hair and fair skin speaking into a microphone. She wears a white blouse with a ruffled collar and sleeves. The woman sits at a wooden desk with her eyes closed and mouth slightly open. A black microphone with a silver base sits on the desk before her. A silver laptop with a blue-lit monitor to the right of the frame and a phone on a stand sits on the right. A lit-up silver lamp on a wooden table sits on the left. A white vase with green and white flowers behind it on the left. The background features a white wall. A line runs down the center of the wall. The bottom center of the frame features white outlined text that reads "早在11年前" and "As early as 11 years ago". The woman speaks into the microphone while gesturing with her hand on the right. The video cuts to another scene, showing the woman on a video call. The video cuts back to the woman speaking into the microphone. A man on a laptop on the right speaks to her. The woman continues to gesture. The video cuts again to another scene. The woman continues to speak. The camera pans and zooms in on the woman.

Frame 2

The image depicts a rocket on a launchpad at night, with a dark sky and clouds in the background. The rocket is white with a black nose cone and a logo on its side that resembles an "X" made up of two curved lines. It has a long, slender body with a cylindrical shape and a rounded tip. The rocket appears to be standing upright on a launchpad, surrounded by tall metal towers or antennae. At the bottom of the image, there is white text in both English and Chinese. The English text reads, "He used his own rocket to launch these satellites." The Chinese text is written above the English text and appears to be a translation of the same sentence. In the top-left corner of the image, there is a small yellow banner with a white number "2" and some Chinese characters. The overall atmosphere of the image suggests that it is a screenshot from a video or documentary about space exploration or rocket launches.

Frame 3

The image shows a young woman sitting at a desk with a microphone in front of her. * The woman has long blonde hair and is wearing a white blouse. + She is looking directly at the camera. + Her mouth is slightly open as if she is speaking. * There is a black microphone in front of her. + It is positioned on the left side of the image, slightly below her chin. * There are subtitles at the bottom of the image. + They are written in both English and another language (Chinese characters). + The English text reads "Has begun to gradually reverse". * In the background, there is a desk with various items on it. + A laptop computer is on the right side of the desk. + A phone is on a stand to the left of the laptop. + A vase with flowers is on the left side of the desk. + A lamp is behind the vase. + A monitor or TV is on the wall behind the woman. The overall atmosphere suggests that the woman is recording a video or podcast.

Frame 4

The image depicts an aerial view of a large industrial area, likely a factory or manufacturing facility. The scene is dominated by a sprawling complex comprising several buildings and structures. * **Large Metal Structures** + Several large metal structures are visible, including cones and cylinders + They appear to be in various stages of construction or assembly + The structures are made of metal and have a smooth, shiny surface * **Buildings and Facilities** + A large gray building with a corrugated metal roof spans the width of the image + Several smaller buildings and warehouses are scattered throughout the complex + A large open area with a concrete floor provides space for vehicles and equipment * **Vehicles and Equipment** + Several vehicles are parked throughout the complex, including trucks, cars, and construction equipment + A yellow crane or forklift is visible in the bottom-left corner of the image + A white truck is parked near the center of the image * **Text Overlay** + A line of Chinese characters is written in white text at the bottom of the image + Below the Chinese characters, the English text reads: "Get an open-air factory and start welding" * **Logo and Watermark** + A logo featuring a red circle with a white wing on either side is displayed in the top-right corner + The text "RGV AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY" is written in small gray letters next to the logo In summary, the image shows a large industrial complex with various metal structures, buildings, and equipment. The presence of construction vehicles and the text overlay suggest that the facility may be involved in manufacturing or construction activities.

Frame 5

The image depicts a still from a movie or TV show, featuring an astronaut in a white spacesuit standing in a metallic room with various tools and wires visible. The astronaut is positioned on the right side of the image, wearing a white spacesuit with a helmet and gloves. He appears to be looking at holographic projections in front of him. * **Astronaut:** * Wearing a white spacesuit * Helmet and gloves * Standing on the right side of the image * **Holographic Projections:** * Two blue transparent rectangles * Containing images of tools (screwdrivers, wrenches) * One rectangle displays a red warning symbol with the text "MISSING" and a wrench icon * **Room:** * Metallic walls and floor * Various tools and wires visible * A large circular window on the right side showing a view of the moon's surface and a spacecraft * **Text:** * Chinese characters at the bottom center of the image * English text below the Chinese characters: "I'm missing a wrench." * **Background:** * A view of the Earth through the circular window * A spacecraft visible on the moon's surface outside the window The overall atmosphere suggests that the astronaut is in a space station or on a mission to the moon, and is experiencing difficulties with his equipment.

Frame 6

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Frame 7

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Frame 8

The image presents a Chinese article about Elon Musk, accompanied by a black-and-white photograph of him. The article is written in Chinese characters and features a yellow highlighted section. * **Article** * The article is written in Chinese characters. * It appears to be discussing Elon Musk's SpaceX and its plans for artificial intelligence. * The article mentions that SpaceX will integrate artificial intelligence, rockets, and base internet, mobile equipment direct connection communication. * The estimated value of the company is expected to reach $1.25 trillion. * Musk believes that the only reasonable solution is to transfer these high-resource-consuming computing tasks to the domain of unlimited energy and space. * He predicts that in the next 2-3 years, generating artificial intelligence computing power in space will become the lowest-cost way. * **Highlighted Section** * The highlighted section is in yellow and contains two sentences. * The first sentence states that Musk believes the only reasonable solution is to transfer these high-resource-consuming computing tasks to the domain of unlimited energy and space. * The second sentence mentions that through direct utilization of nearly continuous solar energy, maintenance costs are extremely low, and these satellites will thoroughly change our computing power expansion capabilities. * **Photograph of Elon Musk** * The photograph is in black and white. * It shows Elon Musk wearing a suit and white shirt. * He has short hair and is looking to the left with his hand on his chin. * **English Text** * There is English text at the bottom of the image. * It reads "Even some residents near the data center". In summary, the image presents an article about Elon Musk's SpaceX and its plans for artificial intelligence, accompanied by a black-and-white photograph of him. The article highlights the potential benefits of transferring high-resource-consuming computing tasks to space, where energy is abundant and costs are low.

Frame 9

The image presents a comprehensive infographic titled "SPACEX: COMPLETE VERTICAL AI SERVICE ECOSYSTEM INFOGRAPHIC," showcasing SpaceX's vision for a vertically integrated AI service ecosystem. The infographic is divided into three sections, each highlighting a distinct aspect of SpaceX's AI capabilities. **Section 1: Starlink - Global Data Network** * A globe with satellite connections * A man on a mountain using a laptop * A house with a satellite dish * A family and a person on a tablet * Text: "Stream Grok Anywhere - 随时随地刷 Grok" **Section 2: Starship - Heavy Cargo Transport** * A rocket launching into space * A spaceship transporting cargo * A person at a desk with a computer * Text: "Moving Computing Power Like Bricks - 像搬砖一样搬算力" * Text: "Train the strongest brain" **Section 3: xAI - Space Data Center** * A space data center with solar panels * A person working on a computer * Text: "Processing at the Speed of Light in Orbit - 在轨道上光速处理" The infographic effectively illustrates SpaceX's comprehensive approach to AI services, encompassing global data networks, heavy cargo transport, and space data centers. The use of visuals and concise text makes the information easy to understand, providing a clear overview of SpaceX's vision for the future of AI.

Frame 10

The image presents a screenshot of a website, likely in Chinese, featuring a predominantly white background with black text and accents. The top-left corner displays a purple logo accompanied by the text "Jarsy" in black, while the top-right corner shows a series of icons. **Key Features:** * **Logo and Title:** A purple logo is situated in the top-left corner, alongside the text "Jarsy" in black. * **Navigation Menu:** A navigation menu is located on the left side of the page, comprising various tabs with Chinese text. * **Content Section:** The main content area features a brief description of Jarsy, highlighting its purpose as a platform that enables private market stock conversion into asset-supported tokens, making IPO investments simple, transparent, and accessible. * **Team Section:** A section showcases three team members, each with their name, title, and social media profiles: + Han Qin - 联合创始人兼首席执行官 (Co-Founder and CEO) + Chunyang Shen - 联合创始人兼首席技术官 (Co-Founder and CTO) + Yiying Hu - 联合创始人兼首席运营官 (Co-Founder and COO) * **Footer:** A black banner at the bottom of the image contains white text in both English and Chinese, stating: "The implementation logic of Jarsy is the same as Equityzen." **Visual Elements:** * The website's design is clean and modern, with a focus on simplicity and ease of use. * The use of a white background and black text creates a clear and readable interface. * The purple logo adds a touch of color and visual interest to the page. **Overall:** The image effectively communicates the purpose and features of the Jarsy website, providing a clear and concise overview of its functionality and team members. The design is visually appealing and easy to navigate, making it an effective tool for showcasing the platform's capabilities.