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Mar 28, 2026, 12:04 PM
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今天的新闻看了吗,一家发行加密货币稳定币的公司在美国纳斯达克上市,一家发币公司上市。如果你觉得没有什么问题,那我换个顺序来说 这句话,上市公司能发币,你细品,你应该能感受到其中的威力了吧。这简直是个炸弹,整个金融行业都要重新够了。 除此之外,一些细心的小伙伴应该发现了,聪明前最近的动作非常奇怪,比如说股神巴菲特开始疯狂的减持银行股票。我们可以看到,伯克希尔在5月15号递交的他们第一季度持仓报告,报告里显示,他们完全清仓了花旗银行的股票,同时大幅减持的呢,还有美国银行的股票。要知道,巴菲特这里的花旗银行仓位是2022年才建的仓,那对于他这种长期主义价值投资的人来说,拿了三年就把这个票完全清仓,就意味着他们对银行业呢,是短期不再看好了。 以上我说的这两个事件,表面上看起来没有任何的关联,但是实际往深的去扒,这些都和美国下周要通过的一个法案息息相关。这个法案就是,我们今天就来好好分析一下这个抢了银行饭碗的稳定币法案。 首先呢,什么是法案啊,简单来说呢就是一个法律的提案,那这个法案呢,通过两院投票,总统签字之后呢,就会变成法律。那今天这个稳定币法案呢,其实不只有一个啊,最古早的版本呢其实是民主党在2020年时候就发起的一个提案啊,名字叫CableACT,但是这个法案当时呢是没有被通过的。他们当时提出的稳定币法案,这发行主体呢仅限于获得银行牌照的机构才可以发行稳定币,简单来说只有银行能发,如果当时这个法案通过的话,最大的受益方绝对是银行,而且对币圈是极大的打击,为什么呢,最大的USDT发行商泰达不合规啊,泰达不是银行啊,这敢一通过,泰达就犯法了呀,泰达一犯法,稳定币出问题,你就别想了,币圈绝对大崩盘。好在2020年时候这个法案并没有通过,那今天的这个版本这个Genius这个法案呢,就非常友好。 那这么一个友好的版本,可算是达成共识了,实际不然,参议院第一次动议的时候,也就是5月8号,居然又被驳回了,主要被驳回的原因呢是这样的,一个发行商的身份是允许总统和官员发币的,这就非常容易产生腐败。大家可能对这个发行稳定币背后的利益到底有多大,没有什么感觉,我稍微给大家说一个新闻,大家感受感受这个新闻的,大家应该都非常熟悉,就是前段时间阿布扎比宣布他们投资币安20亿美金,对吧,那关于这件事情,我们都觉得哎呀,这是利好币安啊,但是根据我们的追踪调查发现,川普的儿子这个Eric在Token2049的大会上公然宣布这投资的20亿美金是用USD1结算的啊,这USD1是啥,这是川普家族发行的稳定币,什么意思呢,也就是说中东财阀把他们的20亿美金是打给川普家族的银行账户上的,然后呢,川普家族给了一堆虚拟货币USD1给币安,所以币安收到的呢是一大度稳定币USD1,钱都还在川普家族的银行账户上,这20亿趴在账上,你要知道是多少利息,按美国短期国债4%的利息去算,20亿美金,一年下来就是8000万美金,8000万美金,你想贪污,你也不是那么好贪的,要知道拜登当总统的4年,他们家族被指控的累计贪腐金额总共也就3000万美金,一家的人忙活4年也就low了3000万,但是这川普家族一个稳定币发行,就这一笔单子,一下子多出来8000万的合法收入,这一单呢,就够人家拜登家族干8年了,所以说大家对这稳定币背后的利益输送,应该多少有点概念了吧。 好呢,说完了稳定币背后的利益情况,我们来说这个法案通过之后它对世界未来的影响,那这个影响呢,咱从小的往大的说,首先稳定币法案最直接的影响就是影响稳定币市场,法案规定任何机构,你想要发行稳定币,你就需要用等值的高流动性资产做支持,那这些资产具体是,第一,美元现金与联储票据,第二,就是银行的活期存款,第三,就是到期天数小于93天的美国国债,第四条就是小于7000的回购或者是逆回购协议,第五呢,就是货币市场上投资以上四种方向的基金,第六个呢,就是中央银行的准备金,也就是说,你想要发稳定币,你只要等额储备啊,这种流动性比较好的现金资产就行了,那这个门槛呢,其实不高的,现有的稳定币企业,稍微努努力,都能达到这个门槛,实现合规。 所以说,是利好这些企业啊,那对于市场上其他的稳定币,就可能不太利好了,比如说抵押石油,黄金,债券的这种稳定币啊,还有,火过一年的这种算法稳定币啊,那这种呢,在法律出来之后呢,都视为不合规了,所以并不是普遍利好,每一个稳定币项目。 好,那第二个影响呢,就是对RWA的影响,那稳定币法案规定了,稳定币就是某定美元或者是美债资产的稳定币,底层资产还不就是美元和美债吗,所以所谓的稳定币法案,其实就是美元,美债上链,那美元,美债呢,本身就是现实世界资产,是吧,就是RWA,那这个法案对稳定币规定的合规三件套呢,其实就是RWA监管三件套,第一,公开审计要求,底层资产每月公开一次就行了,审计师呢,要是注册会计师事务所,第二个呢,就是高管确认责任到人,项目方的高管也就是CEO啊,要簽署他們的報告準確性声明,如果发现作假,直接可以抓去坐牢,第三个呢,就是第三方托管啊,客户的资产呢,必须独立托管,隔离记账,防止挪用或者是债权冲突,也就是项目方想要拿用户资产进行一鱼多吃,上点杠杆,是绝对不可能出现的了。 所以说,目测未来其他的RWA资产,也会套用这个监管三年套,比如说股票呀,各类债券呢,直接助退RWA的起飞。 好,那第三个部分呢,再往大了说,实际上就是会影响到整个加密行业啊,那关于这个部分呢,其实我们之前视频里面有提到过,美国财政部部长贝森特呢,他在公开发言里面,其实算了一个账,他说他认为,未来啊,这个稳定币,数字货币,购买国债的这个资金规模,要高达2万亿美金,如果按照法案稳定币和美元,美债呢是一一对应的关系啊,那购买2万亿的美债呢,其实也就是发行出来了2万亿的稳定币,那这2万亿发行出来会留到哪里呢,当然大部分还是会留在币圈的,那当前的整个加密行业的市值呢,总共也才3万亿美金,那这3万亿呢,实际上是单单只靠了2000亿的稳定币规模就支撑起来了,那现在呢,稳定币的规模直接达到2万亿,翻十倍,什么概念,那再来说一下,对国际的影响,那对国际的影响呢,主要体现的国际支付方面,之前的国际支付的解决方案呢,主要就是这Swift系统,各个国家的银行呢,都来加入到这个Swift的体系里面,通过这个体系才能实现不同国家,不同货币之间的转账,但是这个体系的问题比较大,慢,手续费巨高,而且周末不上班,一米钱想从美国打到泰国,周五打的,下周一才能到,那现在呢,这种链上稳定币,有了美国的背书啊,再加上加密货币支付呢,它本身又是又快又便宜,所以说,接下来会有更多的国际贸易伙伴,会采用加密稳定币进行支付,而且再加上美国监管,对稳定币其实有KYC限制的要求,你审计要求,你实名认证,所以说,也算是能通过监管,发行方,从而去监视,美元稳定币,全球范围内的使用情况,也算是保留了以前Swift系统的好处,同时也解决了周末不上班的坏处。 然后,再往大了说,是不是能解决美债危机呢,我先说一下我的个人观点,我当然是支持这个假说的,我们可以通过一组数据得出结论,目前这些稳定币企业,他们配置最大的资产类型,实际上就是美国国债,比如说,现在市场占有量最高的泰达公司,它是USDT的发行商,它发行USDT一共发行了1500亿美金,其中的1200亿美金,它都拿去购买了这美国的国债,1200亿美债购买规模已经超过德国所持有的全部美债规模了,这个规模已经位列全球第19大美债持有者了,所以,未来稳定币的规模越大,他们需要储备的美债就越大,这在一定程度上能缓解美国的美债压力,目前美债的情况是,它的规模虽然大,但是有38%的规模都是由美联储和美国政府持有的,自己发的债,自己买,这一部分的利息就是左兜揣右兜,相当于没有利息成本,真正面临利息压力的是,要真金白银给出利息的,反而是广大的美债持有者,那这稳定币的发行商,他们来购买美债,对于美国来说,就是一个听话的自己人而已,给他付的利息等于也是左兜揣右兜,毕竟你还可以向这些企业征税,发款,把你付给他的利息再拿回来,对吧,真是无耻啊,你。 所以说,随着稳定币市场的发展,这美债的债主结构呢,也会发生巨大的变化,政府对美债利息的掌控度就越大,美债的稳定性呢,就越强。 好,以上呢都是积极方面的影响,咱们再来说两个消极方面的影响啊,第一个最消极的呢,就是会直接影响到了美国国内的银行业,如果未来稳定币的市场规模呢,真的能达到几万亿,而且能做这几万亿生意的人呢,不只有银行,那就意味着银行呢,面临巨大的竞争,而且呢,随着稳定币的普及,很多人账户上面的一些流动性资金,本来应该是美元的,结果他未来呢,可能会存成美元稳定币,所以,银行业务中,活期储蓄的部分呢,会有所减少,储蓄规模下降,那就会影响银行的仿贷能力,所以说,业务呢,会受到巨大的冲击,我想呢,这也是开头我们提到的为什么巴菲的老爷子要清仓掉这些银行股票的原因了。 那第二个危险呢,就是像这种土耳其,阿根廷这些自己国家货币不太稳定的国家,他们会非常危险,毕竟美元稳定币,高低人家是在链上了,是吧,理论上人家没有外汇管这一说,各个国家的居民呢,都可以买到这些稳定币,那这些国家自己的货币,不够强,波动非常大,通胀严重,那这些国家的居民呢,未来会逐渐放弃本国货币啊,那居民都使用美元稳定币了,那这些国家呢,慢慢都会变成美元的金融附属国,不再有任何的独立性了。 好,那说了这么多了啊,都是这个法案能够顺利通过的情况,那当然了,最后呢,咱还是要回到事实啊,目前这个法案参议院的动议呢,是通过了一周之后呢,可能就要投票了,那投票通过之后呢,还要总统签字,但是人家毕竟还没签字啊,总统签字之后,还有一年的适应期,最快呢,在26年才会变成法律,实施生效,所以,非常有可能这一轮,27年呢,它就不是熊市,还会是一个更大的牛市,正所谓东风以借力,万里好扬分,很荣幸和大家一起见证,加密行业,以及全球金融行业改变历史的辉煌一刻,比特币百万一枚之日,可待。 视频的最后呢,广告时间,那时至今日,低价获取比特币的最好方式呢,仍然是挖矿,但是吃过的亏告诉我,挖矿呢,还得合规,咱们的赞助商甲方爸爸呢,也是专注于北美挖矿的Data Run,那Data Run作为我们的赞助商呢,已经赞助我们半年的时间了,在这半年的时间里,一直稳如老狗,对我们的算力呢,也是按时交付,准时提币,用可靠的行为换来了用户的信任,那现在Data Run呢,也有一些福利活动,感兴趣的小伙伴呢,视频下方点击客服链接进行了解,我们下期见咯。

Frame Analysis (10)

Frame 1

The image depicts a hand grasping a bundle of straw or hay, with the background featuring a blurred image of the United States Capitol building and a green shield with a white checkmark. **Hand and Straw Bundle:** * The hand is positioned in the center of the image, with the palm facing outward. * The fingers are curled around a bundle of straw or hay, which appears to be held tightly. **Background:** * The background features a blurred image of the United States Capitol building, situated on the left side of the image. * On the right side, a green shield with a white checkmark is visible, although it is also blurred. **Text:** * At the bottom of the image, two lines of text are displayed in both English and Chinese characters. * The English text reads: "are closely related to a bill that the US will pass next week." **Overall Impression:** * The image suggests a connection between the hand holding the straw or hay and a bill being passed in the US government, possibly related to agriculture or environmental issues.

Frame 2

The image presents a line graph illustrating the value of FTT Token over time, with a notable decline on November 9. * The line graph: * The line graph features a blue line that trends downward from left to right. * The line exhibits fluctuations throughout its course but experiences a significant drop around November 9. * The graph's background is black with white horizontal lines, providing a clear visual representation of the data. * The FTT Token logo: * The logo is a gold circle with a yellow outline and white text that reads "FTT TOKEN." * It is positioned to the right of the graph, above the date "Nov. 9." * The date "Nov. 9": * The date is displayed in large white text below the FTT Token logo. * A vertical white line extends from the date to the bottom of the graph, highlighting the point where the significant decline occurs. In summary, the image effectively conveys the dramatic decline in the value of FTT Token on November 9 through a clear and visually engaging line graph.

Frame 3

The image presents a visual representation of a transaction involving three prominent individuals, with a focus on their connections and exchange. The background features a black canvas with white grid lines. * **Three individuals are depicted:** * A man wearing a blue suit and a headscarf * Donald Trump * A man wearing a dark suit * **Transaction details:** * The man in the blue suit provides $20 billion to Donald Trump * Donald Trump gives $20 billion USD1 to the man in the dark suit * **Chinese characters and English text:** * The phrase "Then the Trump family gave" is written in English at the bottom of the image * Chinese characters are displayed throughout the image, providing additional context * **Background:** * A black background with white grid lines The image effectively illustrates the connections between these individuals and the significant transaction that took place.

Frame 4

The image presents a slide with a mix of English and Chinese text, accompanied by a circular photo of a woman in the top-right corner. The background features a gray tone with faintly visible text. * **Title Section:** * A black box with yellow text reads, "Stablecoins must be backed by highly liquid assets of equal value." * Above this, there is additional Chinese text. * **Circular Photo:** * A circular photo of a woman with long brown hair is situated in the top-right corner. * **Background Text:** * The background contains faintly visible text, including the title "(2) BANK SECRECY ACT" and options A, B, and C. * **Bottom Text:** * At the bottom, there is white text that reads, "if you want to issue stablecoins," followed by more Chinese characters. The image appears to be a slide from a presentation about stablecoins, emphasizing the requirement for them to be backed by highly liquid assets of equal value.

Frame 5

The image depicts a woman standing in a modern kitchen, with a caption in both English and Chinese. The woman has long blonde hair and is attired in a gray tank top. She wears a gold necklace featuring a four-leaf clover pendant. The text at the bottom of the image reads: 那穩定幣法案規定了 "The stablecoin bill stipulates that" The background of the image showcases a sleek, white kitchen with large windows that offer a view of the outdoors. A chandelier hangs from the ceiling, adding to the room's ambiance. The overall atmosphere suggests that this image may be a still from a video or a screenshot from a website.

Frame 6

The frame features a woman with long blonde hair wearing a gray tank top standing in a kitchen. Her head is facing forward, however, her body slightly faces the left. In the background to her right, there are white cabinets and a dishwasher below a white countertop and a countertop with a sink in front of a tall window. On top of the countertop, there are two small ceramic containers on the left and a potted plant on the right. To her left, a dining table with a white tablecloth is in front of a tall window with a white chair. A spherical metal light fixture hangs from the ceiling on the upper left. At the bottom of the frame, white text with a black outline is overlaid, displaying Chinese characters above English text that reads "we have mentioned in our previous videos." The atmosphere suggests a promotional video still.

Frame 7

The image shows a white sign with black text and a blue logo, placed on a white surface in front of a purple wall. The sign reads "USD Coin" and "The digital dollar that does more." The background features a dark room with fluorescent lights on the ceiling. * **Sign:** * White sign * Black text * Blue logo * Placed on a white surface * Text: "USD Coin", "POWERED BY CIRCLE", "The digital dollar that does more" * **Background:** * Dark room * Fluorescent lights on the ceiling * Purple wall behind the sign * **Chinese Text:** * At the bottom of the image * Translates to: "stablecoins have the endorsement of the US,"

Frame 8

The image depicts a woman in a kitchen with text overlaid. The woman has long blonde hair and is wearing a brown tank top with a gold necklace featuring a four-leaf clover pendant. She appears to be speaking or singing, as if she is being interviewed or presenting information. In the background, there are several large windows that let in plenty of natural light, offering a view of the outdoors. A table with a white tablecloth and chairs can be seen on the left side of the image, while a kitchen counter with cabinets is visible on the right. A large light fixture hangs from the ceiling above the woman's head. At the bottom of the image, there is text in both English and Chinese. The English text reads, "the more US treasuries they need to reserve." The Chinese characters are written in white font with a black outline, while the English text is written in white font. Overall, the image suggests that the woman is discussing finance or economics, possibly related to US treasuries, in a modern and well-lit kitchen setting.

Frame 9

This still image captures a close-up shot of a woman standing in a bright and airy kitchen. The fair-skinned woman with long brown hair wears a grey tank top and a delicate gold necklace featuring a small pendant with a four-leaf clover-like design. She gazes directly at the camera with a neutral expression. At the bottom of the frame, white text overlay reads: "will not only be banks." Above it, Chinese characters are displayed. The background kitchen features white cabinets on the right and a sink area on the right-hand side, all blurred. A wire globe chandelier hanging from the ceiling and a table positioned under a window on the left are also visible. Outside the windows, a scenic view unfolds, complete with trees and a bright sky.

Frame 10

The image depicts a scene of the United States Senate in session. The room is filled with individuals dressed in formal attire, standing and conversing. At the top center of the frame, a blue curtain with gold accents hangs behind a man seated at a desk. In the foreground, a blue banner features white text that reads "YEA 66 NAY 32." Below this, another blue banner displays the words "UNITED STATES SENATE" alongside an emblem. Underneath these banners, white text states: "Motion to Invoke cloture on the Motion to Proceed to the consideration of S.1582. The GENIUS Bill has been passed for a week." The room's interior boasts a blue carpet adorned with a pattern of small white flowers. The walls are painted beige and feature decorative gold designs surrounding large blue panels. Two wooden doors with glass panels are visible on either side of the room. The overall atmosphere suggests a formal political proceeding or meeting.